World Cup 2026
Ratings & probabilities
Explainable Elo-style team ratings and group-advancement probabilities for the FIFA World Cup 2026, recomputed from real results after every matchday.
Statistical estimates from public match results — educational analysis, not betting advice. Method is fully documented below.
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Next fixtures — model view
Panama 23%
draw 26%
Croatia 50%
Colombia 52%
draw 26%
DR Congo 22%
Switzerland 46%
draw 27%
Canada 27%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 47%
draw 27%
Qatar 27%
Scotland 8%
draw 24%
Brazil 68%
Morocco 49%
draw 26%
Haiti 24%
Czech Republic 29%
draw 27%
Mexico 45%
South Africa 40%
draw 27%
South Korea 33%
Curaçao 26%
draw 27%
Ivory Coast 48%
Ecuador 22%
draw 26%
Germany 51%
Japan 40%
draw 27%
Sweden 33%
Tunisia 7%
draw 23%
Netherlands 69%
Group advancement probabilities
10,000 simulations of the remaining group fixtures. "Advance" = top 2 in the group, or one of the 8 best third-placed teams.
Methodology
- Ratings: standard Elo (base 1500, K=35 historical / K=40 for WC 2026 results, margin-of-victory multiplier √goal-difference), computed in date order over 333 men's senior international results in the PlayersB open archive (FIFA World Cup 2018–2022 + historical entries, UEFA Euro 2020/2024, Copa América 2024, AFCON 2023; StatsBomb open data) plus 46 WC 2026 results to date (OpenFootball, CC0).
- Match probabilities: Elo expected score with a draw share of up to 27% that fades as the rating gap grows. Knockout fixtures carry no draw (winner advances after extra time / penalties).
- Advancement: 10,000-run Monte Carlo over the remaining group fixtures with a fixed seed (fully reproducible). Tiebreakers: points → goal difference → goals — FIFA's head-to-head criteria are approximated, not replicated.
- Provisional teams have fewer than 8 rated matches in the archive (several 2026 debutants); their ratings carry high uncertainty.
- Calibration caveat: cross-confederation comparisons are weakly calibrated — the archive's tournaments rarely overlap confederations, so teams that did well in their own continental championship can rate above what a global view would suggest. Ratings self-correct as WC 2026 results feed in.
- Recomputed automatically on every data refresh. Machine-readable output: /data/predictions.json.
Last input refresh: 2026-06-24T00:30:08.305Z.